Option E Strategy in 72nd BPSC: When to Mark "Not Attempted" vs Calculate Risk
Civil Services Performance Lab (Mathematical Strategy Mentors) • 11 min read • Published: 2026-10-31
A mathematical guide to navigating Option E in 72nd BPSC. How to calculate expected value, when to shade Option E ("Not Attempted"), and how to avoid the catastrophic blank OMR penalty.
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1. Mathematical Expected Value: When to Guess vs Skip
Under 1/3rd negative marking, random guessing across 4 options has an Expected Value (EV) of zero: (0.25 * 1.0) - (0.75 * 0.333) = 0.00.
However, when you eliminate even 1 option with certainty, your expected value turns positive (+0.11 marks). When you eliminate 2 options, EV jumps to +0.33 marks per attempt.
Decision Matrix: Attempt vs Option E Skip
| Knowledge Level on Question | Statistical Expected Value | Recommended Action on OMR |
|---|---|---|
| 100% Certain of Correct Option | +1.00 Marks | Bubble Correct Option (A, B, C, or D) |
| Eliminated 2 Options (50/50 choice) | +0.33 Marks Positive EV | Must Attempt! Positive expected return |
| Eliminated 1 Option (1 in 3 choice) | +0.11 Marks Slight Positive EV | Attempt if total attempts < 110 |
| Completely Clueless (0 options eliminated) | 0.00 EV (High risk of variance) | DO NOT GUESS! Bubble Option E immediately |